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Exploring vulnerability to rapid climate change in europeResearchers
Professor Nigel Arnell
Dr Neil Adger
Dr Emma Tompkins
Institution
Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research
- Department
of Geography, University of Southampton
- School
of Environmental Sciences and CSERGE, University of East Anglia
Summary
of Project
Researcher Profiles
Researcher
Contact Details
Publications
Annual
progress report 2003 (pdf format)
Summary
The broad aims of this project are - to
identify which parts of society and the economy in Europe are most sensitive to
rapid climate change,
- assess the ability of organisations
in the UK to adapt to the threat of rapid climate change,
and
- to contribute to the development of a conceptual representation
of adaptation to extreme, but rare, changes. "Rapid climate change" includes collapse
of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, rapid deglaciation,
and massive melting of permafrost. Although these changes have very low probabilities
(not yet fully quantified), their consequences are potentially very large.
Rationale
The most recent assessment of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected an increase in global average temperature
of between 1.4 and 5.8oC over the period 1990 to 2100, a rate of increase without
precedent over at least the last 10,000 years. Many studies - reviewed by the
IPCC -have assessed the ecological, economic and social impacts of such increases
in temperature, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. All such studies,
however, have essentially assumed that climate changes gradually (albeit at an
historically fast rate under the most extreme projections) and "smoothly": very
few studies have reviewed comprehensively or quantitatively the potential effects
of rapid or abrupt climate changes, particularly those due to a reorganisation
of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. The IPCC's Third Assessment
Report includes just a table with generalised qualitative indications of potential
impacts. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that some key sectors are currently
very concerned about rapid climate change - and about the likelihood and impact
of unprecedented extreme events - particularly where large and long-lived infrastructure
investments are involved. The key sectors likely to be most vulnerable to rapid
climate change are (in no order) water resources, flood management, agriculture
and forestry, ecosystem services, health and transport. Research
questions
The research seeks to address the following
five issues - Characterisation of rapid climate
changes which may affect Europe;
- A qualitative
assessment, based on previous studies and structured interactions with stakeholders,
of the sectors of the economy and society in Europe likely to be affected by rapid
climate changes;
- The construction
of numerical indicators of vulnerability to rapid climate changes;
-
Assessment of the attitudes of managers in different sectors to the threat of
extreme, but rare, challenges, and construction of a conceptual model of adaptation
to such challenges;
- Provision
of the basis for a quantitative assessment of the risk of rapid climate change
impacts, combining vulnerability and likelihood.
Research
approach
The research will be organised around the
five objectives listed above. In general terms, it will involve reviews of the
published and grey literature, structured interviews with a number of key actors,
as well as Delphi-surveys and workshops involving groups of scientists and representatives
from potentially-impacted sectors. A preliminary stage in the project is therefore
to identify a number of relevant stakeholders, representing all potential impact
areas. This set of stakeholders - focusing on the UK but also representing European-scale
impacts - will be drawn from the existing extensive contacts of the project group
and Tyndall Centre. Anticipated outcomes
- information for adaptors on the potential impacts of rapid climate
change, and how to assess them;
- information for climate
policymakers on the potential impacts of different emissions scenarios: the existence
of thresholds beyond which adaptation to climate change becomes "different" or
impossible may be important here;
- a basis for quantitative
assessments of the impact of rapid climate change;
- a basis
for a theory of adaptation to extreme but rare climate change.
The
research will be reported in the academic literature, and also through appropriate
media to managers seeking to adapt to climate change and policymakers developing
future emissions policies. The research will be directly relevant to the IPCC's
Fourth Assessment Report.
Researchers Professor
Nigel Arnell
Research is focused on the implications
of climate change for hydrology and water resources management, at catchment and
global scales. He was the coordinating lead author for the hydrology and water
resources chapter in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, and his research has
been used by the water industry in the UK to help plan adaptation to climate change.
He has close links with the water industry and environmental regulators. Professor
Arnell is the co-leader of the adaptation research programme within the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research. Dr Neil
Adger
Dr Adger is Reader in Environmental Economics
at the University of East Anglia, and Senior Research Fellow in CSERGE. His research
has focused on the vulnerability of communities to environmental change, most
recently in southern Vietnam, and he has also worked on indicators of vulnerability
and adaptive capacity. He is co-leader with Professor Arnell of the adaptation
research programme within the Tyndall Centre. Dr
Emma Tompkins
Dr Tompkins is a Senior Research
Fellow in the Tyndall Centre, working on developing a theory of adaptation to
climate change. Her research specialisation is in institutional adaptation to
environmental change, environmental management, participatory approaches, integrated
and inclusive coastal zone management, multi-criteria analysis (MCA), contingent
valuation methods, stakeholder analysis and conflict management.
Contact
Details Professor
Nigel Arnell
Department of Geography and Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research
University of Southampton,
Highfield,
Southampton, SO17 1BJ
Dr.
Neil Adger
Reader in Environmental Economics
School
of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia,
Norwich, NR4 7TJ
Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research
CSERGE
Dr.
Emma Tompkins
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich,
NR4 7TJ 
Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research | |
