| | ||||||||||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |||
Crises as catalysts for adaptation: human responses to major floodsResearchers Institution Summary
of Project The research focuses on shifts in human behaviour and public policy, by studying crises to amplify human-environment relations. Using a new 'realist' approach to hazard-response modelling, the project will explore the context, the actor strategies and the consequential policy changes for four UK flood crises (1947; 1953; 1998; 2000). Drawing on documentary evidence and some semi-structured interviews the research will, firstly, catalogue the impacts that each extreme event had on public policy. Secondly, the research will examine how, in the negotiations of these policy changes and their outcomes, different actors drew on their information, networks, attitudes, values and risk perceptions in the mobilisation of their arguments. These results will then be used, thirdly, to gain insight into the determinants of crisis-related policy change and to develop a model of the impact of crises on long term policy transition. Related to climate change, this general model of policy transition- with further research - could then be used proactively and predictively to anticipate the kind of actor behaviour/signals that might predict (or facilitate) policy transition in the future. Background/rationale
The advantage of an evaluation of crises, as catalysts for adaptation, is that the process of risk perception and related social change can be rapidly accelerated in such situations. The number of factors influencing these changes can be significantly reduced and their interactions somewhat simplified. Thus, the crisis and its aftermath magnify our insight into the process of social and human adaptation in response to rapid environmental change. Drawing on four flood events (1947, 1953, 1998, 2000) that have had an acknowledged impact on public policy and popular discourse, this research will explore the key factors which have influenced human behaviour and public policy. For end users in hazard and environmental management, the research should then generate insights into key signals of human behaviour that lead to or require changes in policy. Key research questions
Research
approach Contextual analysis: Drawing on a range of documents, the analysis will characterise each flood context, event, the policy changes and policy actions. Actor-analysis: Using semi-structured interviews and document analysis a human behaviour timeline will be produced for seven key actor groups. This will highlight any changing attitudes and arguments in advance of, during, and after the floods. In particular, it will provide an understanding of the development, and use, of the key variables each actor used in the formal policy negotiation process. The interviews will expand on some of the informal processes of negotiation and the influence of this on public discourse and policy outcomes. Policy transitional analysis: Having evaluated the context of each flood, and the actors involved, the final step is to examine how human attitudes and behaviour towards the crises have changed over time. In particular, the researchers will be looking for key 'signals' that actors used to legitimise the conclusions of the negotiation process and how these were influential in subsequent contexts and events. The ultimate objective will be the development of a general model of policy transition informed by the process of multi-actor negotiation across different contexts. From this, we may be able to say - perhaps with further research - which of the discussions and negotiations that are taking place now about climate change will be really important in the long run. Intended
outcomes In
particular, it is anticipated that this research will yield:
Research summary This project is heading towards its final phase of research. The research framework has been both theoretical and case study specific resulting in an interesting theory paper on the incremental and catalytic nature of policy change in the flood hazard context and four case study files in direct response to the research questions proposed. To this end, for each case study, we now have a fairly clear understanding of:
In addition to this, we have developed a useful theoretical model of policy change, which explicitly recognises the incremental and catalytic nature of this policy process and the key variables involved. Preliminary findings If we are to adapt to any future changes in the environment then we need to elucidate the potential changes in human behaviour in response to this. In our project, we have sought to address this by developing a generic understanding of changing human behaviour in response to the flood hazard from a policy perspective. This has generated an understanding of policy across many decades as a process of incremental and catalytic change. Drawing on the work of Paul Sabatier and colleagues, incremental change, we argue, is dominated by coalitions of actors sharing similar beliefs and values which translate into core policy objectives and policy instruments. Since World War II three such coalitions have dominated: the land drainage coalition, the flood defence coalition and more recently the flood risk management coalition. The dominance of each of these coalitions has significantly influenced the policy ideas generated in response to the flood hazard, the focus of these policy initiatives and the values which they reflect. In addition to this, the four floods we have evaluated can be seen to have had a catalytic effect on the policy process by increasing the rate at which policy has changed. It is, however, important to note that many of the ideas circulated in response to the crisis were already evident in the policy discourse of the dominant coalition at the time. In fact, only in 1953 did a 'new' idea emerge as a result of the crisis - namely the Storm Tide Warning System. What this suggests, therefore, is that by providing the 'window of opportunity' for increasing the rate at which policy changes, the flood crisis provides an important vehicle for changing human behaviour in a way that would not have been politically tenable without such a crisis. It also illustrates the importance of context on human behaviour and actor strategies. The question we need to then ask is which of today's ideas will become tomorrow's policy? Future plans In the remaining months of the project it is our intention to focus on the behaviour of key actors in the policy making process. This will, with the help of interviews and further document analysis, expand our understanding of the more informal processes of negotiation in order to elucidate our understanding of the influence of this on public discourse and policy outcomes. Having done so, we will then be in a position to examine how human behaviour towards the environment has changed over time in order to highlight how human behaviour can influences changes in public policy. 
Dr Clare Johnson Sylvia
Tunstall Edmund Penning-Rowsell Dr Clare Johnson
Sylvia
Tunstall
Professor Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Project Update (pdf) 50
years of flooding: incremental and catalytic policy change (Powerpoint presentation
as a pdf)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
