Project Leader: Paul Ekins
Sponsor: Forum for the Future (funded by BP Solar UK, the Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA), Eastern Group plc, the Energy Savings Trust, Greenpeace, Johnson Matthey, the Ashden Charitable Trust and the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation)
Period: 1998-2001
Collaborators: BP Solar UK, the Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA), the Energy Saving Trust, Greenpeace
Background
The Solar Millennium Project (SMP) was set up in 1998 to explore the economic and environmental implications of the UK shifting to a sustainable use of energy. SMP has two phases. Phase 1, completed in 1999, involved modelling a programme of government support for renewable energy, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and household energy efficiency out to 2010. Phase 2 involves pushing the modelling of the same kind of Government programme out to 2020.
Project Design
Paul Ekins is the overall Project leader, directing staff from Forum for the Future (Cathy Hough [Phase 1 only] and Robin Cotton on renewables, Andy Russell on household energy efficiency and CHP) and Cambridge Econometrics (Charlie Hargreaves), which did the modelling. The project involved involved defining and modelling policies for promoting CHP, renewables and household energy efficiency, and then seeing their economic and environmental implications using the Cambridge economy-energy-environment model of the UK.
The three elements of the project were carried out for different agencies: renewables for Greenpeace (Phase 1 only), household energy efficiency (HEE) for the Energy Saving Trust (EST), and CHP for the Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA). In addition, BP Solar funded a 'Photovoltaics (PV) Focus', with Ashok Sinha working at Forum for the Future on PV market development issues. Importance of Research
Importance of Research
The Government has a target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990's level by 2010. Its Climate Change Programme relies heavily on the promotion of renewables, CHP and household energy efficiency. This study is therefore closely related to an important area of Government policy, and its results provide a check on the calculations and projections that have been made by Government in respect of that policy. Reflecting this, the results to date of the study have been received with interest by the relevant Government departments, to which a number of presentations have been made. The results on renewable energy were also presented at an international conference co-organised by Forum for the Future and the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House in March 2001.
Publications
Year 1
Ekins, P., Hough, C., Cotton, R., Bryden, C. & Hargreaves, C. 1999 'Power for the New Millennium: Benefiting from Tomorrow's Renewable Energy Markets', a Report for Greenpeace, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P., Russell, A., Bryden, C. & Hargreaves, C. 1999 'Combined Heat and Power to 2010', a Report for the Combined Heat and Power Association, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P., Russell, A., Bryden, C. & Hargreaves, C. 1999 'Domestic Energy Efficiency to 2010: the Economic and Environmental Implications of Increasing Domestic Energy Efficiency in the UK', a Report for the Energy Saving Trust, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P., Hough, C., Russell, A., Bryden, C. & Hargreaves, C. 1999 'The 20% Solution: Meeting Government Targets on Climate Change', Policy Briefing PB4/99, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P. 1999 'Climate Hots Up for Government', November 4, p.19, Financial Times, London
Sinha, A. 1999 'UK Electricity: A Brighter Future. A Strategy to Bring Photovoltaics to Market', Policy Briefing PB2/99, Forum for the Future, London
Sinha, A. & Hough, C. 1999 'UK Electricity: A Brighter Future. A UK Solar Electricity Strategy Based on an International Market Analysis', Technical Report TR2/99, Forum for the Future, London
Year 2
Ekins, P., Russell, A., & Hargreaves, C. 2000 'Combined Heat and Power to 2020: The Economic and Environmental Implications of Exploiting the Potential of CHP', a Report for the Combined Heat and Power Association, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P., Russell, A., & Hargreaves, C. 2001 'Household Energy Efficiency to 2020: the Economic and Environmental Implications of Improving Household Energy Efficiency in the UK', a Report for the Energy Saving Trust, Forum for the Future, London
Ekins, P., Russell, A., & Hargreaves, C. 2001 (forthcoming) 'Reducing Carbon Emissions through Improved Domestic Energy Efficiency in the UK', Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning
Ekins, P. & Cotton, C. 2001 'UK Renewables to 2020', paper presented to the conference 'Can Renewables Deliver?' organised by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, March 12th, Chatham House, London
Ekins, P., Cotton, R., Russell, A. & Hargreaves, C. 2001 (forthcoming) 'Sustainable Energy for the UK: the Economic and Environmental Implications to 2020 of a Sustainable Energy Strategy for the UK', Final Report of the Solar Millennium Project of Forum for the Future, London (with an Executive Summary to be published separately, entitled 'Sustainable Energy for the UK to 2020')