UK Energy System Scenarios and Sensitivities using the UK MARKAL-Macro Model


September 2005 to October 2007

PSI researchers:

Background, summary and aims

Background and Aims

This project for DBERR (formerly DTI) and DEFRA accelerated the development, calibration and use of the new UK MARKAL-Macro (M-M) energy systems model. The focus of this work was to provide an extensive range of long-term UK 60% CO2 abatement scenarios, run for analytical insights to underpin the 2007 Energy White Paper.

Project Design

Model development (enabled through the energy systems modelling theme of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)) is to be undertaken, notably the range of enhancements to improve UK MARKAL’s functionality and analytical sophistication. These include resource supply curves, explicit depiction of energy supply chains, remote and micro electricity grids, substantial technological detail in the major end-use sectors (residential, services, industry, transport and agriculture), and a full data update including substantial stakeholder interaction. A major component of the development work will be the integration of MARKAL with a neoclassical growth model (MARKAL-Macro), to facilitate direct calculation of macro-economic impacts from changes in the energy sector as well as endogenous behavioural change in energy service demands.

A very extensive set of results and MARKAL-Macro (M-M) model scenarios, utilizing an integrated set of UKERC assumptions and data, include

Base-case, CO2 emissions in 2050 constrained to 60% of 2000 levels (C-60), and alternate CO2 emission trajectory (SLT) implemented linearly from 2010;
Resource import (high and low) price scenarios, from DTI projections;
Technology scenarios: restricted innovation (limited to either 2020 or further to 2010 levels of improvement), no-nuclear, no-CCS or no-nuclear / CCS scenarios.

Importance of Research

This project further strengthens the Policy Studies Institute as a major energy modelling group, including being one of a handful of international institutions active in hard-linked macro-economic and technology detailed (top-down bottom-up) energy modelling approaches. This project is highly policy relevant and will be a major analytical input into the 2007 Energy White Paper and ongoing UK energy policy initiatives.